Resilience of the Banking Systems through Inflation and Pandemic

Authors: 
Razvan Stroe
Florin Andrei
JEL codes: 
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy.
Abstract: 
This study examines the resilience of the European banking system in the face of two major external shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent inflationary period. Building on the lessons learned from the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis, the research evaluates how regulatory reforms, particularly Basel III, and strengthened macroprudential frameworks shaped banks’ ability to absorb shocks without triggering systemic instability. Using quarterly data from Q4 2014 to Q3 2024, the study employs descriptive statistics, covariance, correlation, and linear regression to analyze the impact of key macroeconomic variables—real GDP, inflation, unemployment, private sector credit growth, 3-month EURIBOR, and non-financial corporate debt—on non-performing loans (NPLs). Results indicate that NPLs steadily declined during the analyzed period, with only a minor and temporary increase at the onset of the pandemic, before reaching historical lows in 2022–2023. Regression findings reveal unemployment as the most significant determinant of NPLs, followed by inflation and corporate debt, while GDP, credit growth, and EURIBOR had no statistically significant direct effects. The findings demonstrate that banks were not only resilient during these crises but also contributed to economic recovery by maintaining credit flows and supporting government guarantee schemes. The study concludes that stronger capital buffers, liquidity reserves, and stress-testing frameworks enabled banks to function as stabilizers rather than amplifiers of systemic risk. Policy implications highlight the need to further strengthen regulatory frameworks, expand stress-testing, and reinforce cross-border supervisory cooperation to sustain resilience in the face of future shocks.
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