The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

Nazima Ellahi
JEL codes: 
E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation, F30 - General, G31 - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies; Capacity.
Inflation is not just a rise in general price level, but a much more complex phenomenon. It is well admitted fact that mild inflation is natural and a greasing factor to the wheel of economy and commerce and on the other hand, high inflation causes negative impact on economy. In order to formulate policies regarding its control and keeping it at a moderate level, it is necessary to explore its major determinants. Present study is an attempt to discuss the determinants of inflation in Pakistan utilizing a data set over 1975 to 2015. The empirical analysis is carried out with application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag methodology. The estimation methods find the short run and long run impact of each variable on inflation and also found the speed of adjustment. Analysis used money supply, national expenditure, imports of goods and services and GDP growth as exogenous variables while taking inflation as an endogenous variable. Major preliminary findings suggested that money supply and national expenditure have significant effect on inflation, where national expenditure has a positive impact on inflation but money supply implies negative impact on inflation. Moreover, GDP growth has negative impact on inflation and imports of goods and services have positive impact on inflation. The findings for short run effect showed that none of the variable proves to be a significant determinant of inflation in short run. In sum, study suggested a few policy recommendations for keeping the inflation at level required for country to grow.
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