Efficient Market Hypothesis: Some Evidences from Emerging European Forex Markets

Kumar, S. Anoop
Kamaiah, Bandi
JEL codes: 
F31 - Foreign Exchange, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies, G15 - International Financial Markets.
This study attempts to analyze the presence of weak form efficiency in the forex markets of a set of select European emerging markets namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Slovenia using the monthly NEER data ranging from jan-1994 to Dec-2013. We employ a two step comprehensive methodology where in the first place we test for weak form efficiency using a family of individual and joint variance ratio tests. The results show that while the markets of Croatia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria may be weak form efficient at a shorter lag, the other six markets are not informationally efficient. In the next stage, we estimate a measure of relative efficiency to show the extent to which a market is weak-form inefficient. From the results, it is found that the forex markets of Croatia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria are least weak form inefficient compared to others. The findings of the study are of relevance as it shows that even after roughly two decades of free market economic policies, majority of the forex markets in the area remains informationally inefficient.
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