Is Exchange Rate Volatility An Important Determinant Of Tax Revenues? Evidence From Turkey

Sinem Koçak
JEL codes: 
C32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, E62 - Fiscal Policy, H20 - General.
Is exchange rate volatility an important determinant of tax revenues? This study seeks, in the light of this question, empirical evidence on the relationship between volatility in exchange rates and tax revenues in the case of Turkey. Monthly data on exchange rate volatility, tax revenues, industrial production index and inflation rate for the period 2006:01-2019:12 are utilized for research purposes. The short-run and long-run dynamics between the variables are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to shed some light on the macroeconomic determinants of tax revenues, with a new perspective considering exchange rate volatility. The results of the ARDL bounds test show that volatility in the exchange rate has a negative effect on tax revenues in the long-run, but positively in the short-run.
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