Long – Term Distribution of the Job Offer in Romania and Job Polarization

Carmen-Elena Bănescu
Emilia Țițan
Daniela Manea
JEL codes: 
J20 - General, J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure, J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity, J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials, J62 - Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility.
In the case study we aim to analyse the long-term distribution of vacancies on the Romanian labour market. This approach allows us to identify one of the long-term consequences of the digitalization of the economy, namely polarization. Polarization can be viewed from several perspectives, but here we are only referring to the polarization of the job supply. The phenomenon implies a significant reduction in interest in mid-level jobs. Thus, to identify the probability that this phenomenon will already manifest itself in Romania, we carried out an analysis with the help of Markov chains. In this way we will identify the occupations that could be the most numerous in the long run in Romania. Even if Romania does not indicate an obvious polarization of the labour market, in the long run, clues in this regard can be identified. There is a system of vocational training at national level, but it does not cover the prospects of the labour market.
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